Libya's Political Situation, Explained
Q&A with Abdulkader Assad, Senior Political Editor at The Libya Observer
Ahlan everyone!
I am so, so thrilled to share this latest newsletter edition with all of you. This week, we're diving deep into the chaotic political situation in Libya. With the multitude of actors, foreign influences, and internal challenges, trying to understand Libya's politics can be a daunting task. In this issue, we'll dismantle the complexities and give you a comprehensive insight into the current state of affairs.
Providing insights into our inquiries is Mr. Abdulkader Assad, a seasoned journalist and political analyst, and Senior Political Editor at The Libya Observer. With over a decade of experience covering Libya, Mr. Assad brings a depth of knowledge and expertise to our discussion. In this Q&A, he sheds light on Libya's split government, key players, the challenges surrounding elections, and the impact on the nation.
I am so, very excited for all of you to read through this. Grab a cup of mint tea or Arabic coffee, and let’s dive in!
The following interview took place on February 18, 2024, and some minor edits have been made to enhance readability while preserving the integrity of the interviewee's responses.
Could you describe the split in government? Why are there two governments in the East/West? Who are the main actors on each side?
In 2021, the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum held in Geneva produced a unity government, the Government of National Unity, headed by Abdul Hamid Debeibeh. There were already two governments in place. When the Government of National Unity was formed, the two governments decided to cede power, leave their offices, and hand power peacefully to Debeibeh. For the remainder of 2021, there was only one government in power which was the Debeibeh government.
It was good for Libya to have that one government leading to elections. The idea was to have elections in December 2021. When that didn’t happen, the Eastern camp in Libya, led by the House of Representatives Speaker Aguila Saleh, and led by military commander Khalifa Haftar, decided that they wouldn’t be okay with Abdul Hamid Debeibeh continuing in power without any elections. They felt that he was just going to stay in power without making serious strides towards elections. In 2022, the parliament withdrew confidence from the Government of National Unity and appointed a new government led by Fathi Bashagha. They named ministers of the cabinet and there was a new government. Again, Libya re-entered the same phase of having two governments.
Since then, we’ve had the two governments. The East-based government is inactive internationally. The international community deals only with the Tripoli-based government. But as the status quo in the country, Libya is in a state of having two governments.
Why couldn’t Debeibeh lead the government to elections?
At the beginning, they were preparing for elections. People were starting to campaign as candidates, including himself (Debeibeh); Khalifa Haftar ran for elections; Saif Muammar Gaddafi also ran for elections. These three figures’ campaigns started controversy in Libya. Saif Muammar Gaddafi is the son of the former dictator, so a lot of people didn’t want him back. That created doubt of whether to go forward with elections or to try to delay it until we reach consensus. They delayed it, and created a committee called 6+6.
The 6+6 consisted of 6 members from the House of Representatives in Eastern Libya, and 6 members from the High Council of State in Western Libya. These 12 members started meeting in Bouznika, Morocco. They wanted to draft consensual electoral laws so they can decide the points of controversy- whether military figures are allowed to run for elections, whether dual citizens can run for elections, and whether Saif Muammar Gaddafi is allowed to run in elections. At the end of 2023, they decided that it would be allowed for military figures and dual nationals to do so, provided that if military figures won presidency, they would immediately resign from their posts, and if dual nationals won, they would renounce their second citizenship. The House of Representatives in Eastern Libya endorsed the 6+6 results, which said that all Libyans can run for elections without any exceptions. This means that Saif al-Islam Muammar al-Gaddafi can also run.
These laws were not favored by Debeibeh. With this decision, military figure Haftar is allowed to campaign. This is the main point of contention. The Eastern camp wants Haftar to run but the Western camp does not want him to run. And it is the other way around- the Eastern camp does not want Debeibeh to run, but the Western camp wants Debeibeh to run.
In my opinion as a journalist, who has been following Libyan politics since 2013-2014, I can tell you that these main points of contention are not going to disappear. Elections are not going to easily happen.
Is there a side that Libyans support more?
That depends on who you are talking to. If you are talking to someone from Benghazi, they will say they support Haftar because Benghazi is being built and there are infrastructure projects. If you go to Tripoli, Misrata, and Western Libya, they will say they support Debeibeh because he is building roads and doing things... Yesterday was the 17th of February, the anniversary of the Revolution. People enjoyed the fireworks and the celebrations in Tripoli.
If you catch a neutral, unbiased person, they will say they are not okay with the state of Libya, because a lot of money is being squandered and wasted on nothing. There is a lot of corruption on both sides. The idea of patriotism is not there. If you talk about “Libyanism,” Libyanism is not there because they are just in it for the money. A lot of public funds are wasted on nothing. If you look at the income of the ordinary Libyan person, it is still between $150-$250 and this is very low for an oil-rich country. For example, yesterday (February 17thcelebrations), it was estimated that $50-$100 million Libyan dinars ($10,360,285 - $20,720,570 USD) were spent on the whole 1-day party. On the same day, people are still waiting to be paid their salary. State employees are still waiting to be paid their January salaries.
If you look deeply into the Derna floodings of September, the whole city was devastated because there was no infrastructure, no maintenance of the dams, nothing. It was a forsaken city. It was negligence rather than a natural disaster. All of this is about the corruption over the years.
How are the people of Derna recovering from the floods? We have not heard much since they happened.
That is the problem! If you remember, there were so many donations from countries like the US, UK, and also local donations. A lot of money was sent to Derna. But if you ask the people there, there are so many people who are still looking for a place to live. So many families are still displaced inside Derna and in the towns near Derna. This is bad because if you look at the amount of money that was sent, you would see we could have constructed rentals, temporary housing, schools, decent places for them, but nothing like that happened.
Where did the money go?
The money went into pockets- Haftar’s pockets in Eastern Libya and Debeibeh’s pockets in Western Libya.
What about the money from international non-governmental organizations?
They did well at the time actually. For example, there was this French aid campaign that did well. But 15 days after the disaster, except for small maintenance and repairs to the roads for vehicles to come and go, nothing meaningful happened for the families. No reconstruction projects of the buildings have started yet. It has been five months since the disaster. This is because the Eastern government named Khalifa Haftar’s son, Belgacem, the head of Derna Reconstruction Fund.
This is what’s been happening since 2012. This nepotism and corruption- where everyone is trying to see how many resources they can extract out of Libya. There is no democracy; no real transparency as to where the money is going.
Do you think that there is a possibility of unification in the future? Between the governments, or in the Libyan public? Do you think there will be progress in the next 50 years?
Let’s talk about the near future. There was so much blood shed between the East and West Libyans. If you ask me that Eastern and Western Libyans will reconcile in the near future, I am going to say no. In 2014, there was a war between East and West Libya, and there was so much blood. A lot of people have lost loved ones in this war, and they blame the other side. If you talk about the conflicts of 2016 and 2018, the main actors were Haftar in the East and a coalition of different armed factions from the West. This caused a lot of loss to the families on each side. In 2019, the Haftar’s forces led a military campaign in attempt to capture capital Tripoli in Western Libya. That, too, led to more bloodshed. Ordinary people are too heavy-hearted to reconcile in the near future. But in the long run, I think it could happen.
I wanted to ask about the monarchy. Prince Mohammed El Senussi- what’s that about?!
This is the rumor that is spreading around in Libya: Debeibeh was planning to bring back the monarchy with this heir to the throne, Mohammed El Senussi and make him King. With the King back, it will bring back nostalgia to the people and people will love him. Then, Debeibeh would be his Prime Minister like it was the United Kingdom. This is the rumor.
The heir is really active. He is meeting with a lot of people, and he is releasing messages like “I am thinking of returning to the Kingdom for the sake of the Libyans.” But Libya has so many problems that he has little knowledge of. He doesn’t know anything about what is going on. It’s not going to be any successful addition to the Libyan situation.
I agree because he didn’t grow up in Libya either. He grew up in the UK.
Yeah exactly. He doesn’t have any experience. And Libya has a lot problems- people have arms which is the first problem. Elections are out of control of the government, that is another problem. The Southern region has open borders with a lot of migrants coming in, and a lot of smuggling and human trafficking taking place. These are problems that do not need a low-experience King to solve them. He is not going to solve them.
In my opinion, we need a military figure. Not a military rule like Muammar Gaddafi’s, but just a military figure that has political experience. One that actually understands how to shut the borders, regulate the weapons in the hands of people, and integrate militias into the government’s interior ministry and defense ministry. These things should happen in Libya first, and then we can talk about democracy and elections.
(check out Mr. Assad’s Libyan Monarchy Explainer video here)
Is there a military figure that you think would make a good leader?
There are, but definitely not Haftar because he is involved in too much bloodshed. There are people, but in Libya, but there is no single person or group without an ideology. So many people have agendas, and this is ok, but you need to choose the person with the least violent, least harmful ideology. That is what we’re looking for. We hope that elections can go forward so we can see new candidates on the scene. There are so many people who can be candidates for the presidential elections. However, the two governments in place now are not going to allow elections to go forth.
Lastly, are there at least talks of an election coming soon?
There are talks, and the UN envoy to Libya is trying to push the two parties to come to a table of dialogue. But the two parties are issuing too many conditions to have these talks and they are delaying this dialogue with their preconditions. For example, the Debeibeh government wants to be the only government on the table but the House of Representatives wants to have its government only on the table as well. This concept of exclusion is getting in the way of such a dialogue. Now we are in February, we have only 10 months until the end of the 2024. I don’t think elections are going to happen this year. It is very difficult. Even if you want to prepare logistically for elections, you need more time to prepare than just 10 months, especially for a country who is preparing for elections for its first time ever.
A lighthearted bonus question: What are your favorite books by Libyan authors and tell me your song recommendations.
There are not many Libyan writers. You may know this one, well-known writer who is British-Libyan. His name is Hisham Matar, he wrote The Return. There is also Sadeq Neihoum, an old Libyan narrator and prose writer who has produced a lot of writings and books.
Libyan singers are also rare. For music, I only really listen to works from the Shami region- Lebanon, Syria, and others. I like Assala, a Syrian singer. Mayada El Hennawy is another singer that has very good songs (Syrian).
A heartfelt thank you to Mr. Abdulkader Assad for generously sharing his insights and expertise. Your input and discussion was very, very informative and invaluable.
For more insights, follow Mr. Assad on X (Twitter) and Facebook. Make sure to stay updated with the news from The Libya Observer and Libya Al Ahrar.
📖 Phrase of the Day 📖
🎶 Tunes 🎶
Tendme - Ibrahim Hesnawi (70s-80s reggae)
Shukran - DONBAYA (pop)
El Marhoun Wraditah - Hanan Al Araibi (traditional)
RAS L’KHEIT - Fulan (electronic)
Law B3ref - Asmaa Salim (pop)
Bek Enty - Saleh Yasser (pop, hip-hop)
Ya Hobaha & Jalta (live performance) - Ahmed Al-Sokne (traditional)
Sharmolla - WEISA (hip-hop, reggae)
Badelt Hyati - Wasen ft Hiroshima (pop, rap)
Forsan Ajwad - Iman Aldresy (traditional, pop)
Snini - Ahmed Fakroun (70s)
Ya Latif - Alien & WASE (hip-hop)
🍽️ Cuisine 🍽️
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📚 Literature 📚
The Return by Hisham Matar (recommended by Abdulkader Assad)
Mr. Assad recommended The Return, and I also have just finished reading the book less than a week ago, so I will give you my full review. This is arguably the most famous Libyan book by arguably the most famous Libyan author (in the West). Matar writes with a beautiful, thoughtful, and accessible prose. It is very easy to read through. The memoir discusses his investigation into his prominent activist father’s disappearance under the Gaddafi regime. It does not only discuss the facts of Matar's life but of how historical and political events shape a society and its people’s individual lives. I felt that Matar wrote in acknowledgement and in validation of Libyans’ connected histories. A lot of his tidbits of recollection resonated with me in remembrance of my own family’s history under the regime. Even though I don’t think it was the most amazing book and that it left a lot to be desired, I still think The Return is a must-read for anyone. It makes for a compelling read and leaves readers with a lot of food for thought about their place in society and the world around them.
Catalogue of a Private Life by Najwa Bin Shatwan
Catalogue of a Private Life presents a captivating collection of eight short stories by esteemed Libyan academic and novelist, Najwa bin Shawtan, and translated by Sawad Hussain. Set primarily in Libya, these tales delve into the complexities of ordinary life amidst the backdrop of war and its profound effects on the average Libyan. Through the lens of everyday experiences, Bin Shatwan navigates themes of loyalty, betrayal, ambition, and regret. From the account of a grandmother confronting a thief to a guard fighting in an imaginary battle, each story is imbued with a delicate blend of wit and strangeness. Bin Shatwan's exploration of Libya's relationships with other countries adds another level to the narrative, offering insights into the intricacies of geopolitical dynamics and their impact on individual lives. Painting a vivid portrait of family, nation, and conflict, Catalogue of a Private Life makes for a compelling read.
Benghazi! by Ethan Chorin
Benghazi! by Ethan Chorin offers a comprehensive examination of the infamous Benghazi attack of September 11, 2012, which resulted in the deaths of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. Chorin, drawing on his firsthand experience in Libya during the attack and his expertise as a former diplomat and scholar of Libyan history, delves deep into the historical, political, and social contexts surrounding the event. The book provides crucial background information on Libya, from the rise of Muammar Gaddafi to the aftermath of the Arab Spring, highlighting the complex web of factors that led to the attack. Despite numerous investigations, many questions remain unanswered, with Chorin attributing this to political infighting and intelligence failures rather than a lack of efforts. Through meticulous research and compelling storytelling, Chorin presents Benghazi as a pivotal moment in modern history, urging readers to confront its complexities and implications for the world today.
Mr. Chorin is a friend of Esmaini Ya Libya! Check out his Substack newsletter here!
The Magic Lanterns Of Libyan Literature curated by Khaled Mattawa for Words Without Borders
The Magic Lanterns of Libyan Literature is a collection of short stories and poems curated by Khaled Mattawa for Words Without Borders in July 2006. Showcasing a diverse array of short stories that navigate themes ranging from desert-style finance, to community and grief, this collection offers a glimpse into the rich literary tapestry of Libya. Furthermore, it features multiple poems who paint vivid portraits of love, introspection, and everyday moments, resonating with the echoes of oral tradition while capturing the spirit of contemporary life. With each story and poem, the anthology pays homage to Libya’s literary heritage while inviting readers to explore its vibrant literary landscape.
⛰️ Scenes ⛰️
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